A shocking new study has found that the Arctic could become ice-free for the first time in late August or early September in the 2020s-2030s, 10 years earlier than expected.
Sea ice in polar regions is disappearing at an accelerating rate. Shrinked 12.2% every decade due to rising temperatures. Under all emissions scenarios, an ice-free Arctic could occur much earlier than previous models predicted, an ominous sign of the ongoing climate crisis that will have significant environmental impacts.
Within this decade, the Arctic may have ice-free days in the summer, and by mid-century, the ice-free Arctic may last a full month in September.Ice-free conditions in the Arctic could persist for months by the end of the century, including some winter months, according to new findings publish Nature reviews Earth and the environment on Tuesday.
“I don’t necessarily want to cause panic, but I hope it creates awareness,” Alexandra Jahn, professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and lead author of the study, told Gizmodo. “This is going to be at play not just in the future but pretty much throughout our lifetimes, so we need to do what we can to limit it.”
The Arctic is not only a critical habitat for polar bears, seals and other wildlife that depend on sea ice; It also reflects heat back into space. Less ice in the polar regions is bad news for us, and more intense heatwaves and extreme winters will plague our future. Melting Arctic ice will also cause sea levels to rise, endangering coastal cities and small islands.
The ice-free Arctic is not completely ice-free. In contrast, scientists consider the polar regions to have ice-free conditions when the ocean ice area is less than 386,000 square miles (1 million square kilometers).On average, ice cover The Arctic Ocean covers an area of 6 million square miles (15.5 million square kilometers). That’s a significant drop, but the researchers behind the new study don’t want us to lose hope just yet.
An ice-free Arctic is inevitable under all emissions scenarios so far. However, future emissions levels will have an impact on the frequency and duration of these ice-free conditions.
“This doesn’t end when there’s no more ice in the Arctic,” Young said. The study noted significant differences between a low-emissions scenario, which keeps temperatures around 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and a high-emissions scenario, where global warming exceeds 4 degrees Fahrenheit.
“In the lower emissions scenario we could be in ice conditions for three months of the year, and in the high emissions scenario we could be in ice conditions for nine months of the year,” Young added. “That’s mainly Water, occasionally ice cover, so basically the exact opposite of the low emissions scenario.”
Just as Arctic ice is more sensitive to climate change because it responds so strongly to temperature, sea ice can recover quickly. If temperatures drop again in the future, Arctic sea ice could recover in less than a decade, Young said. So while ice-free days in the Arctic are coming, there are still ways to ensure they don’t last too long if we act now.
“We really don’t want to surprise people that we’re suddenly at this point where we thought we were 20 years from now,” Jahn said. “It’s really sad and personal to see the whole environment fundamentally shift…”