When NASA launches its giant rocket to the moon in 2022, Elon Musk loses his title of having the most powerful space rocket.
But the SpaceX founder may regain that title with the company’s next big project, Starship.
Although the company was unsuccessful in its first two tests last April and November (the Skyrocket rocket and spacecraft exploded minutes after liftoff), SpaceX is confident that Starship will soon complete orbit, break records and make history .
Updated: March 8, 2024 at 12:04 PM ET SpaceX plans to conduct its third Starship test flight as early as March 14, according to the company.
On the next test flight, the giant booster will need to separate and fall into the Gulf of Mexico about three minutes after liftoff. The rocket will then fly through space around the Earth before landing in the Indian Ocean. The entire journey should last just over an hour.
It’s a critical demonstration of the hardware NASA will rely on to return humans to the moon in the coming years. And, if successful, it would mean Musk is one step closer to realizing his personal dream of building a city on Mars.
The billionaire business magnate has exaggerated timelines in the past. Here’s what we know so far about when SpaceX will attempt this daunting feat again.
SpaceX says refueling its Starship in space isn’t scary
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What is SpaceX Starship?
Starship is a super-heavy rocket and spacecraft designed to carry large amounts of cargo and numerous astronauts into deep space.
The 400-foot-tall stainless steel tower towers above NASA’s rocket, the Space Launch System. About five billboards would need to be stacked on top of the latter to match Musk’s space vehicle. SpaceX estimates its rocket also has about twice the thrust.
The rocket is made of stainless steel, a material Musk particularly favors because of its relatively low price. Unlike NASA’s giant moon rockets that fly on super-cold liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen, this beast is fueled by 10 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen. The new fuel can be stored at more easily controlled temperatures than liquid hydrogen, meaning it doesn’t require as much insulation and is less prone to leaks, a problem that often hinders NASA launches.
SpaceX’s Starship is made of stainless steel and runs on liquid methane.
Image source: SpaceX
Starship aims to eventually develop into a fully reusable launch and landing system designed for travel to the moon, Mars and even other destinations. Musk said at a company event in South Texas in 2022 that its reusability is the “holy grail of space” because it will make spaceflight more affordable for ordinary people.
“It’s a very difficult thing to do,” he said. “With the physics of Earth, it’s almost impossible.”
“With the physics of Earth, it’s almost impossible.”
NASA commissioned SpaceX to develop a version of the Starship manned landing system.
Image source: SpaceX
How will NASA use Starship?
NASA plans to use Starship to send astronauts to the moon during Artemis III and IV, two upcoming missions that could take place as early as 2026 and 2028, respectively.
NASA has commissioned SpaceX to develop a manned landing system version of Starship, with a contract worth $4 billion. As part of the deal, the company was required to demonstrate an unmanned lunar landing test flight beforehand.
During Artemis 3, Starship is expected to transport astronauts from NASA’s Orion spacecraft to the lunar south pole and back. This will be the first human landing on the moon since 1972. NASA also promised that the mission would see a woman and person of color walking on the moon for the first time. On a fourth mission, Starship will likely dock at the lunar-orbiting space station (the yet-to-be-built Gateway) and ferry astronauts back and forth from there to the moon.
NASA announced in January that it was delaying the Artemis III program by at least a year, to 2026, in large part because Starship was lagging behind schedule. In order for a SpaceX spacecraft to reach the moon, it needs to be refueled in low Earth orbit from a space tanker, something that has never been done before.
Over the past year, NASA’s confidence in Starship appears to have waned. At an Artemis press conference in August 2023, Jim Free, then NASA’s associate administrator for exploration systems, told reporters that if schedule delays continued, NASA could eventually Change the mission objectives of Artemis III.
When is the next Starship launch?
SpaceX is A third orbital test flight is planned for March 14. However, a specific launch time has not yet been provided as the launch is still awaiting licensing approval from the Federal Aviation Administration.
This test will differ from plans for the first two tests, which attempted to reach orbit and splashdown off the coast of Hawaii. This time, the company will send the spacecraft to a different orbit for a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. According to an update on its website, SpaceX chose this path to try out new technologies such as in-space engine combustion “while maximizing public safety.”
Mix and match speed of light
SpaceX also plans to conduct preliminary tests of fuel delivery. The spacecraft will attempt to move 11 tons, or 10 metric tons, of liquid oxygen between tanks within Starship. This is the first step toward the ultimate goal of transferring propellant between two separate craft in space.
“This third flight test was designed to build on what we learned from previous flights while trying to achieve some ambitious goals,” SpaceX said.
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What happened on Starship’s previous test flights?
The company has tried to fly Starship twice, but has yet to complete a journey into space without exploding.
The rocket was first launched on April 20 and exploded about four minutes later 24 miles above the Gulf of Mexico. The rocket did not separate from the giant booster, but flipped through the air and returned to Earth. After several engines failed to fire, both the booster and spacecraft activated their self-destruct systems, although aerodynamic pressure eventually caused the spacecraft to disintegrate.
SpaceX later said the booster caught fire due to a fuel leak, which disrupted the connection to the main flight computer. In response to these problems, the company made improvements to the fire extinguishing system, launch pad and self-destruction system, and installed flame deflectors.
On April 20, 2023, SpaceX’s Starship attempted to enter space for the first time, but failed to enter orbit. It appeared to explode as it descended about four minutes after liftoff.
Image source: SpaceX
During its second flight test on November 18, Starship flew about eight minutes into the flight after successfully demonstrating a new method of separating the booster from the spacecraft in mid-air, known as “thermal staging.” explode. The procedure is supposed to increase the starship’s lift capabilities and help prevent gravity from slowing it down.
However, the booster ruptured, possibly due to a fuel blockage in the engine. And, when the starship’s upper stage separated, leaks from the ship caused a fire that disrupted communications and triggered the flight termination system. Since the successful flight to space but not orbit, the company has modified the hardware to reduce leaks and improve fire protection.
Where will Starship be launched?
Perhaps surprisingly, Starship won’t lift off from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, where most space fans are accustomed to watching historic launches.
Instead, it will take off from SpaceX’s own spaceport in Boca Chica, Texas, called Starbase. Eventually, the company will launch rockets from a launch site under construction outside the famous Florida launch pad that launched Apollo 11 to the moon.
“The plan is to do a couple of test flights in south Texas,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said. “Once they feel confident, they will take the mission to Cape Town.”
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How to watch a starship launch?
If you’re not on the list for SpaceX’s private Starbase, but you’re in the South Texas area, you can try watching future flight tests at a public beach on South Padre Island, such as the Cameron County Open Air at Isla Blanca Park Theater or Port Isabel. Locals are known for hosting watch parties.
For those watching at home, SpaceX will begin a live launch countdown about half an hour before liftoff.The live broadcast will be available on the SpaceX website, and real-time updates will be available at Posted on Xa social platform owned by Musk.
You can watch Starship’s second test flight below:
What are the chances that Starship will succeed?
Well, it’s not entirely unexpected that SpaceX has successfully completed its first and second flight attempts.
After the first flight test, Kate Tice, the company’s quality systems engineering manager, said Starship clearing the launch tower was the team’s main hope. Ahead of the second flight, Theis managed public expectations for the test, saying it was “very likely” the booster would suffer damage.
Even Musk, a man who can’t parse words when talking about the reality of spaceflight, has said that space tests of Starship are unlikely to succeed on the first try.
“Every flight test is just a test,” SpaceX said on its website. “Rather than taking place in a lab or on a test bed, they put the flight hardware into the flight environment to maximize learning.”
“Every flight test is still just that: a test.”
Administrator Nielsen congratulated the SpaceX team on their bold efforts and said that great achievements in history require “a certain amount of calculated risk.”
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What is SpaceX’s plan for Mars?
The SpaceX founder’s ultimate vision is to use a fleet of Starships to send 1 million people to Mars by 2050.
To be clear, Musk doesn’t just want to build a place for people to visit, but a self-sufficient city. He imagines that with just a little warming, humans could restore a thick atmosphere and oceans to Mars, making it a more habitable environment and even able to grow crops.
“There’s a fundamental turning point in the history of any civilization on a single planet, which is, do you get to a second planet?” Musk told the National Academy of Sciences in 2021: “I suggest we do that, and I think we should do it as soon as possible.”
In December, SpaceX tested a Starship prototype spacecraft on the ground.
Image source: SpaceX
“There’s a fundamental turning point in the history of any civilization on a single planet, which is, do you get to a second planet?”
The spacecraft is spacious enough to accommodate 100 passengers and their luggage, as well as materials to build homes, businesses, rocket fuel stations and iron foundries.
Musk said the journey to get there will be long, but the starship will have entertainment facilities such as zero-gravity games, movies, lectures and restaurants.
“It doesn’t feel cramped or boring,” he said at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico. “It’s really fun to go. You’re going to have a lot of fun.”
Note: A version of this article was originally published on February 4, 2023. Over the past year, it has been updated regularly to reflect the progress of Starship launch activities.