Elon Musk has been speaking publicly about his grand vision for Mars settlement for nearly eight years, dating back to a speech in Guadalajara, Mexico, in September 2016.
This weekend, at SpaceX’s Starbase factory in southern Texas, Musk once again took on the important task of “making life multi-planetary”. Speaking to employees at the company’s Starship factory site, Musk talked about There is a “high urgency” to extend the “light of consciousness” beyond Earth. This is not because humanity’s home planet has failed or should not be protected. On the contrary, Musk said that he does not want humanity to remain a single-planet civilization, which will inevitably face some disasters that lead to species extinction.
All of this is fairly familiar territory to space enthusiasts and Musk watchers. But over the past eight years, he has become an increasingly controversial and polarizing figure. Based on his actions, many would view Musk’s Mars comments as hubris. However, at least in the case of spaceflight, this is wrong. Musk’s interplanetary ambitions are even more believable now that SpaceX has taken steps to achieve what he says the company will do.
SpaceX now has real hardware and has completed three test flights. A fourth will likely take place next month.
“It’s surreal, but it’s real,” Musk said this weekend, describing his bold vision for Mars.
booster and ship
As part of his 45-minute speech, Musk talked about Starship’s boosters, upper stages, and the company’s plans to eventually transport millions of tons of cargo to Mars to build a self-sufficient civilization.
If thousands of launches seem impossible, Musk pointed out that SpaceX has successfully completed 327 Falcon launches, 80% of which used boosters. He said that SpaceX will launch about 90% of the earth’s material into orbit this year. He added that China would roll out about 6% and the rest of the world would roll out another 4%.
This performance gives Musk confidence that the super-heavy boosters that power Starship can achieve reusability. On the vehicle’s next test flight, likely in May, the company will attempt to land the booster on a dummy tower in the Gulf of Mexico. If the landing is precise enough, SpaceX will try to capture the booster on its fifth test flight using a chopstick-like device on Starship’s large launch tower.
“This is very much a success-oriented timeline, but it’s within the realm of possibility,” Musk said. Musk said that there have been many test flights this year, and the chance of capturing the booster with the launch tower this year is 80% to 90%.
It would take longer to land and begin re-using the starship’s upper levels, and it would have to survive a fiery re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. During a flight test in March, the vehicle broke apart and burned while trying to reenter through the atmosphere. Musk said that on the next flight, the goal of Starship’s upper levels is to survive this high temperature and perform a controlled landing in the ocean. He expects SpaceX to reach that milestone sometime this year and then begin returning Starship to Texas next year.
Build more, build bigger
SpaceX is also building additional ground infrastructure and making design upgrades to Starship.
Musk said the company will build a second tower in Texas to facilitate more development test flights. By the end of 2025, it plans to build two Starship launch towers in Florida to begin supporting operational launches. Initially, these may support NASA’s Artemis moon missions.